The plant-based food and beverage category is entering its next phase of growth – but what does that look like for the industry's key players, and where are the opportunities as this competitive landscape continues to mature? Angela Flatland, senior sales director for plant-based at Spins, delves into why a thorough understanding of this developing sector is crucial for those looking to succeed within it.

For much of the last decade, plant-based foods have been treated as a category defined by peaks and valleys. Headlines have switched between explosive growth and claims that plant-based is dead. The reality, as the data shows, is far more nuanced. Plant-based is not disappearing. It is evolving.

At Spins, we recently examined a full ten-year timeline of plant-based performance across the store. What emerged was not a story of decline, but one of maturation. Like any young category, plant-based has moved from rapid expansion into a period of reset and rebalancing. Understanding this evolution is critical for brands and retailers looking to succeed in the next wave.

A decade in context: From breakout to rebalance

Plant-based, as a modern retail segment, is still relatively young. The years between 2016 and 2018 marked the true kick-off, when legacy animal-based categories began to see credible plant-based alternatives emerge at scale. Plant-based milk and plant-based meat, led by brands such as Oatly, Beyond Meat and Impossible, drove consumer momentum during these years.

Momentum accelerated through 2020, when consumer curiosity surged during the early stages of the pandemic. But by 2021 and 2022, the category began to mature from a booming new category to what we're seeing today. Retailers had expanded assortments rapidly, often placing nearly every new plant-based SKU on shelf. As a result, saturation set in. Performance flattened, and in some segments declined, triggering the negative narrative around plant-based growth.

What the ten-year view makes clear is that this phase is not an endpoint. It is a reset. Assortments are being refined, weaker products are exiting, and the category is recalibrating around what consumers actually want. This pattern mirrors the lifecycle of many budding categories that are now staples of the grocery store.

Social discovery is reshaping demand

One of the most important forces shaping the current plant-based landscape and beyond in CPG sits outside the aisle. Consumers are discovering food differently than they did even five years ago. Gen Z shoppers increasingly rely on platforms like TikTok and Instagram to find new products, while Millennials blend social discovery with the platforms and legacy ones like Google and Facebook.

Search and social data show that interest in plant-based products has softened from its pandemic-era peak, but it has not disappeared. Instead, it now coexists with rising interest in searches for high-protein diets, food tracking apps like Yuka, and functional nutrition. Viral moments, such as Netflix documentaries or TikTok-driven ingredient trends, still create meaningful sales spikes for plant-based brands that are well-positioned.

Retail performance: Signs of stabilisation

Point-of-sale data reinforces the idea that the worst of the downturn may be behind us. Compared to its performance two years ago, plant-based is closing the gap between plant-based units sold and total food and beverage, cutting the gap nearly in half, signalling improving trends as the category moves toward 2026.

Channel performance tells an equally important story. Natural retailers continue to outperform conventional channels, with plant-based growth up in natural (+2.6%) while conventional remains under pressure (-3.6%). The reasons are familiar: stronger assortments, more innovation and a shopper who is less price-sensitive. Distribution has tightened across both channels, reflecting broader inventory discipline to account for inflation and tariffs, but velocities are up. This signals steady demand – shifting us away from the questions of what shoppers are left to what shoppers are buying. 

In tandem with the overall trend towards more gut health and protein-conscious consumers, categories like functional beverages and kombucha, yogurt, wellness bars, tofu and protein supplements are experiencing growth in the plant-based aisle in the natural channel. 

Changing consumers and raised expectations

Spins' consumer panel data shows that plant-based meat and milk have lost share, largely to animal-based alternatives. In plant-based meat, roughly two-thirds of dollar losses have shifted back to animal meat, with the remainder moving to categories like refrigerated entrees and beans and lentils. In plant-based milk, the shift is even more pronounced, with the majority of losses going back to dairy milk.

This does not signal a rejection of plant-based values. Instead, it reflects rising competition. Animal-based categories have raised the bar, leaning into many of the same better-for-you attributes that once differentiated plant-based: clean labels, grass-fed, hormone-free, antibiotic-free and natural positioning. Premium natural and specialty animal products are now driving most of the dollar growth in those categories.

In other words, consumers are making more nuanced trade-offs. They are choosing products that best meet their needs in a given moment, regardless of whether they are plant- or animal-based.

What is winning in plant-based today?

Despite maturation, there are clear pockets of strength within plant-based. Products that deliver added nutritional value are outperforming their counterparts. Plant-based sources of protein continue to resonate across the store, even as consumers experiment with where that protein comes from. High-fibre plant-based items are driving disproportionate growth, supported by increased awareness around digestive health and the influence of GLP-1 medications.

Probiotics and gut health are another bright spot. According to Spins' Gen Z and Millennial trends report, younger consumers in particular prefer to get digestive support from food rather than supplements, fueling strong performance for plant-based yogurts and fermented products.

Functional ingredients are also having a moment. Items containing matcha, functional mushrooms and maca root are outperforming the broader plant-based set, aligning with consumer interest in energy, mood and holistic health. Sustainability attributes further reinforce growth, especially labelled organic and fair trade claims. There is strong synergy between the plant-based category and sustainability attributes, connecting to consumers' values-based diets. Standards such as labeled organic plant-based positioned products are growing 18%, while others like regenerative organic certification (+14%), glyphosate residue free (+115) and upcycled ingredients (+4%) trail closely behind.

The next wave: Where innovation is headed

Looking ahead, innovation data offers a roadmap for the next phase of plant-based growth. Categories tied to trending nutrients are seeing the strongest traction, particularly wellness and snack bars, plant-based yogurt, and refrigerated juices, shakes and smoothies. These segments combine high innovation rates with strong alignment to consumer values around protein, fibre and functional benefits.

Importantly, innovation is shifting away from centre-of-plate replacements and toward non-meal eating occasions. Snacking, beverages and supplements are where new plant-based products are entering the market and gaining acceptance. International flavours represent another growth lever, reflecting broader macro trends across the industry and the inherently plant-forward nature of many global cuisines.

Protein remains central to the conversation. While there are early signals that the protein cycle may eventually moderate, the data suggests there is still room to run, particularly for products that balance protein with overall nutritional integrity.

Plant-based is evolving, not ending

Plant-based continues to align with the values that consistently shape food purchasing decisions: health, sustainability and impact on people, animals and the planet. The category’s next wave will not be defined by sheer expansion, but by smarter innovation, clearer differentiation and products that win on taste, nutrition and trust.

For brands and retailers, the opportunity lies in embracing this evolution. Those who understand the competitive landscape, lean into meaningful attributes and meet consumers where they are will help shape what plant-based becomes next.