A new peer-reviewed study models leaf protein concentrate biorefineries as viable global food infrastructure: affordable to build, fast to scale and capable of sustaining protein supply even under extreme agricultural disruption. Ross Milne, CEO of Leaft Foods, and Juan García Martínez, research manager at Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), examine what the findings mean for the protein industry today.

The global protein supply faces structural pressure from multiple directions at the same time, with population growth, shifting dietary patterns and mounting constraints on conventional agriculture creating a gap between what current production systems can reliably deliver and what the world will need. A 10% loss in global food production in a given year is, according to recent modelling, almost certain to happen this century. Meanwhile, the food industry has absorbed hard lessons from recent years: supply chains that look robust under normal conditions can prove brittle under duress.

Against this backdrop, new peer-reviewed research published in the journal Sustainable Production and Consumption offers a rigorous assessment of an underexplored solution: integrated biorefineries producing leaf protein concentrate (LPC) and other foods, such as sugar or single-cell protein from legume biomass. The findings carry implications that extend well beyond the catastrophe-preparedness context in which the research was framed.

What the research asked and what it found

The paper models the potential and cost of integrated biorefineries producing LPC, lignocellulosic sugar, and single-cell protein from green biomass, positioning these as sustainable alternatives to conventional protein and sugar sources capable of remarkable global production at scale.

The headline findings are striking. LPC factories alone could fulfil global protein needs within two years of rapid deployment, while an LPC and sugar combination could fulfil around 5% of global caloric requirements within the first year. Combining LPC with single-cell protein production from processing co-products enables food protein per hectare yields higher than any conventional food crop.

Researchers found that on well-managed land, alfalfa processed via LPC and microbial protein yields up to 4 tonnes of protein produced per hectare per year, surpassing even world record soybean protein yields (approximately 2 tonnes of protein per hectare per year). This is sustainable because it eases pressure on land, water, fertiliser and pesticide use, and frees land for nature. With the right system design, LPC shows 57-85% lower emissions, 54-88% lower ocean acidification, and 74-89% lower eutrophication than soybean meal. 

The economics of this proposal are equally notable. LPC can be produced at scale for $0.67-1.83 per kg dry matter, and when combined with lignocellulosic sugar production, takes around $2 per kg to produce approximately a kilogram of each, with considerable variation depending on LPC yield and the cost of biomass. In catastrophe-response conditions, the estimated retail cost to consumers for fulfilling daily caloric requirements is affordable compared to alternatives, at approximately $1-2 per person per day.

The research also models how rapidly LPC biorefineries could be built at scale. The construction time for a reference-size LPC and sugar biorefinery is estimated at 86-90 weeks under standard construction, and 28-29 weeks using 24/7 construction methods. Compared to other resilient food production technologies, LPC and LPC plus sugar biorefineries are cost-efficient and quick to ramp up, though their dependence on adequate climatic conditions makes them more vulnerable to shocks than options using non-plant feedstocks, such as single-cell proteins from gas fermentation.

On the feedstock side, crop modelling of global grasslands under baseline and nuclear wartime conditions found that global grasslands could provide enough legume biomass for LPC production even in worst-case scenarios, given adequate management, with current climate conditions yielding approximately 22 billion tonnes of dry legume biomass annually across global pasture areas.

What the modelling does not capture, by design, is the ingredient quality dimension. That is, the question of not just how much protein can be extracted from green leaves, but how well its functional properties can be preserved in the process, and that's where commercial development and crisis-response modelling part ways.

Why alfalfa and why now

The research focuses on perennial legumes, particularly alfalfa and red clover, because they are much easier to obtain at scale with a stable high yield per hectare, have better protein quality, and provide multiple harvests per year while requiring no nitrogen fertiliser, thanks to natural nitrogen fixation.

This aligns with Leaft's operational experience in Canterbury, New Zealand, where alfalfa has proven to be the optimal feedstock for Rubisco protein extraction. Alfalfa is one of the most widely cultivated crops on Earth, with established agronomy and deep integration into existing farming systems. What has historically been missing is not the crop, it is the extraction technology. 

Rubisco, the enzyme protein that drives photosynthesis and constitutes the primary protein fraction in alfalfa, presents a well-documented extraction paradox: previous methods consistently destroyed the structural properties that make it functionally valuable. Leaft's breakthrough was developing a gentle, food-safe process that preserves both the protein's nutritional integrity and its functional performance –properties that translate directly into food manufacturing applications, including emulsifying, foaming, gelling and dissolving.

The ALLFED paper acknowledges that taste and consumer acceptability remain open questions for LPC at scale, noting that the characteristically bitter or grassy flavour of unrefined leaf protein could be a barrier to adoption. It also cites Leaft's work as directly relevant to solving this, as the company is commercialising a green protein product (Leaft Blade) that is finding acceptance with consumers excited about the nutrition-first positioning. It is a meaningful data point for the broader field, given the early stage of consumer LPC development.

The nutritional case for alfalfa LPC is also well-supported. Alfalfa LPC is naturally high in many nutrients of concern in disaster scenarios, including vitamin A, vitamin K, calcium and iron, with some LPC products also reporting significant vitamin B12. For food manufacturers, this micronutrient density adds functional value beyond the protein content itself.

Infrastructure implications for food manufacturers

The ALLFED paper's biorefinery model has direct relevance for how food and beverage manufacturers think about ingredient supply resilience. Biorefineries have been proposed as a means of improving food security and sustainability by reducing dependence on soy imports, and combining protein extraction with sugar recovery maximises product yield per unit of biomass processed, while helping improve economics by diversifying revenue streams and increasing capital efficiency.

The multi-output model that makes LPC biorefineries compelling at global scale in the ALLFED analysis is the same model underpinning commercial viability at a regional scale today.

The paper also highlights a promising near-term opportunity: repurposing pulp and paper mills and similar infrastructure is a promising way to reduce capital costs for biorefineries, with modelling showing the approach could reduce CAPEX for the sugar section of a combined facility significantly. For food manufacturers or investors evaluating entry points into the leaf protein supply chain, existing industrial infrastructure is a material consideration.

A category coming of age

The last decade has seen a considerable increase in companies exploring LPC to produce protein-rich foods, and the research base has grown alongside commercial activity. The ALLFED paper represents one of the most comprehensive techno-economic assessments of LPC biorefineries to date, treating leaf protein not as a speculative future ingredient but as a technically characterised, economically modellable production system.

Leaf-based protein is now a category with growing commercial infrastructure, independent life cycle assessment data, and as this research demonstrates, peer-reviewed modelling of its role in the global protein system.

The research now suggests that green leaves can supply the world with protein. The question, now, is how quickly the industry can build the infrastructure to make that supply routine.